Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

These are some Fantasy Football Tips and Strategies for 10 and 12 team leagues. 8 team league are too small while 14 team leagues may be too deep and the drafts are quite long.

In the Draft, use Picks 1 through at least pick 7 to draft RB's and WR's. These guys are the core of your team and will likely determine whether or not a team makes the playoffs or not. I encourage stacking up on RB's and WR's since some will experience injuries and poor seasons which are difficult to predict. It is also very difficult to pick up a reliable RB or WR in the middle of the season since fantasy owners immediately pick up impact player right after an impressive game.

The TE position is the difference between a playoff team and an elite contender. With an elite TE, you add an extra WR to your roster replacing what is an inconstitency. There is a large staticical gap between elite TE's such as Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, and Tony Gonzalez and their contemporaries. Some people will tell you to avoid a TE since you can draft 500 yard and 5 TD players late in the draft, or others suggest to just add a TE that has an impressive start. The hard part about TE's is Fantasy Football is that their production is inconsitient. It is true, an owner could have picked up Zach Miller or Visanthe Shiancoe last season, but it is unlikely that either was picked up until well into the season since it takes time before a TE could prove to be reliable on a fantasy roster. Even if you act quick and pick one of these guys going into Week 4 or Week 5, you are still at a great disadvantage for the first quarter of the season.

Given this I suggest drafting a TE in the late fourth, in the fifth, or if someone good slips in the early sixth. If you miss this window, then you should go with a sleeper later on in the Draft.

Next, unless you are drafting in the beginning of the third round when Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and on rare occasions Drew Brees are availabe you should avoid drafting a QB early since elite QB's are always available on waiver wire. In recent years all of the following QB's were pick up in just about every 15 round fantasy league.

2008: Matt Cassel, Jason Campbell, Joe Flacco, David Garrard, Eli Manning, Kyle Orton, Chad Pennington, Matt Ryan, Tyler Thigpen, and Kurt Warner
2007: Derek Anderson, Jason Campbell, Eli Manning, Jeff Garcia, David Garrard, and Kurt Warner
2006: Rex Grossman, Jon Kitna, J.P. Losman, Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers, and Tony Romo

The first critique of my argument should be that QB's put up the greatest fantasy numbers. The second would be that I suggested not to pick up TE's and that that same argument could be made for QB's. To address the first point, QB's do put up the highest numbers; however, there is a wide gap between an elite QB such as Peyton Manning or Drew Brees and the rest of the field. So unless you are drafting at the beginning of the third round, it is unlikely you will be able to snag one of these QB's that can bolster your team.

If you look at the next tier of QB's it is easy to find QB's that can compete in terms of fantasy output with players that are drafted from the fourth through the seventh round. You may even find yourself picking up a tier one QB, as many did in league where Aaron Rodgers wasn't drafted.

Next where in the TE position there is after the inital drop off between the elite ones and the second rate ones. There is another drop off between these second rates ones and the third rates ones. The second rate group is also quite limited. In terms of QB's that same drop off exists between first and second rates ones; however, there is a very gradual decline between second rate and third rate ones - practically to the extent where the two tiers are indistinguishable. Players that will be drafted in rough 4 through 7 are at not great advantage from those who will be drafted later and even some that will go undrafted.

My next suggestion is to hold off on Kickers and Defenses until thirteenth and fourteenth rounds. Top Kickers can be available at any time in the season while one can pickup a great Defense early and a moderate Defense at any point in the season. Sure Kickers and Defenses can have a significant impact, but there is no disagreement that these two positions are highly inconsistent in Fantasy Football. The only disadvantage of drafting a defense late is that their production is uncertain for the first Week or two which may cost your team points if the team is demolished. But the plan is to pick up one right after week one with a favorable schedule so liability is limited.

Also, do not draft multiple QB's, TE's, K's, or DEF's. Based on the bye weeks of the players that you selected, in the fifteenth select the position with the earliest bye. Then rotate that last spot to fill in bye-week voids. This adds the number of RB's and WR's that you can draft early on. Remember there is no real punishment for excessive talent. You will have great leverage in trades if most of your Flex Players do work out for you.

Finally, here are a couple of suggestions for players to draft depending on your position in the first round:

Early
1 - AP, Turner, Jones-Drew
2 - WR - Wayne, Jennings, Smith, Bolden, Owens, Colston
3 - QB: catch Brees, Manning, Brady
4 - Falling RB - Ronnie Brown, Ryan Grant, Larry Johnson, Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush, Thomas Jones
5 - Gates, Gonzalez, Clark
Make sure to fill in WR slots before loading up on RB depth

Middle
Without two consecutive picks, it is difficult to build much of a strategy. Selecting the best player available from 1 through 7 without concern for position will load up your team with talent and will put you in excellent position to fill in voids and make trades. During the end of the draft, you have to pick wisely and try to snag reliable starters and possible sleepers for positions that you neglected.

Late
1 - Slipping RB - Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, Brandon Jacobs - if no one falls
2 - Slipping 1st Round RB or Elite WR - Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson
3 - Best Player Available or address flex if first and second were the same position
4 - Jason Witten or Wide Receiver
5 - Slipping RB - Larry Johnson, Chris Wells, Knowshown Moreno - make sure RB's and WR's are balanced
6 - Dallas Clark if you missed Witten


High Upside-Low Price

Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan - With another option in Tony Gonzalez this eighth round stud will be an upper echelon fantasy QB
Matt Hasselbeck - Matt has returned from an injury plagued season to find a rejuvenated receiving core featuring T.J. Houshmandzadeh
Trent Edwards - Like Hasselbeck, Edwards now his a new option to throw to that most fans and media members are well acquainted with.
Matt Schuab - With Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and Owen Daniels, Schuab isn't lacking any targets. Schuab is a QB that finds himself slipping in a lot of drafts so if you need a QB do not shy away from this steal.

Running Backs
Ronnie Brown - He has being drafted in the third and fourth rounds, but this back has shown the ability to be an elite fantasy Running Back when he lead Fantasy Running Backs with the most points two years back before he has injured for the remainder of the season.
Julius Jones/Jamal Lewis/Willie Parker - Age will be a factor for these guys, but there are still the starting backs on their respective teams. Of these Jones is the youngest which questions why so many are passing up on this guy. Don't expect to build your Running Back core around these guys, but one or two picks can provide great security for your team.

Wide Receievers
Anthony Gonzalez - There is a new number two for Peyton Manning and this is his name.
Mark Clayton - Due to Derrick Mason's retirement, Clayton is the new number one receiver. Any WR with first priority notation deserves a look.
Torry Holt - Like Clayton, Holt will the new primary receiver on his team.
Ted Ginn Jr. - He is another first resort receiver that is going late in fantasy drafts. Ginn is a deep ball threat, but with Chad Pennington as his quarterback, Ginn will be limited; however, with the innovative Wildcat Offense, Ginn may find himself wide open, mismatched, or in untraditional roles which give him an extra fantasy boost.

Tight Ends
Greg Olsen - The cats is out of the bag. The league knows that Olsen will be a stud. With the ability to go down field and a new quarterback at the helm of the Bears' offense, expect Olsen to join elite fantasy status.
Heath Miller - Miller has always been a consistent TE and if you find yourself without one let in the draft then he can be a reliable one late in the draft.
John Carlison - Expect a resurgent Seahawk offense.

Knicks' Near Future

If nothing is done and the cap drops to 53 we are looking at this for 2010:
Lee - about 9
Curry - 11.3
Jeffries - 6.9
Chandler - 2.1
Gallinari - 3.3
Hill - 2.7
Douglas - 1.1
-------------
Total - 36.4

The Knicks could only afford one max contract, so you would have to say bye to LeBron, Wade, and Bosh since those players would be intrigued to come play with another superstar. We would have room for one decent signing, plus next year's MLE along with this year's if we keep it. So now you are looking at an $8 or $9 million contract along with two MLE's if the Knicks play their cards right. That would bring the Knicks to ten players and $57 million. That would not leave any room, plus the Knicks would only be signing an exceptional player. The team would probably fill up with Crawford, Hunter, and whomever the 2nd round pick next year is. Not too appealing.

What I want, is for the Knicks to use Lee and Chandler to ship off Curry and Jeffries for expiring contracts (I sent you a list, from that point there are a myriad of trades possible).
If we lose those four, then we will have only 3 guarenteed contracts totaling $7.1 million: Gallinari, Hill, and Douglas. At that point the Knicks would have about $46 million to spend plus an MLE and a fine roster which would attract veteran league minimums. Say the Knicks sign two max contracts with $17 million first years. Now we are looking at two superstars (LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Stoudemire, Johnson, Redd or anyone else of your choice), the three young kids, an MLE, 2nd round pick, Crawford, Hunter and $9 million. Now they can split $9 between two decent role players. At this point, it would not be too difficult to sign one or two additional veteran seeking a championship.
PG: MLE / Douglas
SG: Role Player / Crawford / Veteran Minimum
SF: Superstar / Gallinari
PF: Hill / Role Player / Veteran Minimum
C: Superstar / Hunter / 2nd Round Pick

You can now plug away with these names

Superstar: Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce (very doubtful), LeBron James, Shaquille O'Neal, Dirk Nowitzki (very doubtful), Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming (doubtful), Rudy Gay, Dwayne Wade, Jermaine O'Neal, Tyson Chandler, Amare Stoudemire, LaMarcus Aldridge (very doubtful), Brandon Roy (extremely doubtful), Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer

Role Player / MLE: Jamal Crawford, Ray Allen, Raja Bell, Tyrus Thomas, Keleena Azubuike, Luis Scola, Marcus Camby, Quentin Richardson, Ricky Davis, Kwame Brown, Adam Morrison, Derek Fisher, Udonis Haslem, Luke Ridnour, Amir Johnson, Chris Duhon, Al Harrington, Larry Hughes, Rafer Alston, Bobby Simmons, Josh Boone, Hilton Armstrong, Rasual Butler, Antonio Daniels, Peja Stojakovic, Darko Milicic, Thabo Sefolosha, Damien Wilkins, J.J. Redick, Sasha Pavlovic, Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw, Sergio Rodriguez, Manu Ginobili, Ronnie Brewer, Mike Miller, Randy Foye, Dominic McGuire, Matt Harpring, Kyle Korver, Roger Mason

Vet Minimum: Tim Thomas, Speedy Claxton, Brent Barry, Brian Cook, Mark Blount, Bruce Bowen, Francisco Elson, Kurt Thomas, Brian Cardinal, Mike Madson, Craig Smith, Etan Thomas, Tony Battie, Trenton Hassell, Jarvis Hayes, Devin Brown, Mouhamed Sene, Chucky Atkins, Shaun Livingston, Anthony Johnson, Matt Bonner, Michael Finley, Quincy Douby, Devean George, Patrick O'Bryant, Antoine Wright

I am still missing names from possible player, team, or early termination options. Too many options.

2010-2011 Salary Cap

There was been widespread speculation about the NBA Salary Cap for the 2010-2011 Season.

ESPN reports, "In a memo announcing next season's salary cap and luxury-tax threshold, sent out shortly before the league's annual July moratorium on signings and trades was lifted at 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday, NBA teams also received tentative projections from the league warning that the cap is estimated to drop to somewhere between $50.4 million and $53.6 million for the 2010-11 season."

A similar report from the Sacramento Business Journal citing another source states, "The report came during a meeting of the NBA Board of Governors on Tuesday, according to SportsBusiness Daily, an online sister publication of the Sacramento Business Journal. Stern said the league expects revenues to decrease during the upcoming season as teams are lowering ticket prices and sponsorship deals are being scaled back. Early estimates are that the league will see revenue decreases during the 2010-2011 season by as much as 5 percent."

If you combine the information from these two reports, one can safely conclude that the NBA Salary Cap will drop to a figure between $50.4 million and $53.6 million because the NBA is expecting decreased revenue.

The first question that must be asked is : Is this for real?

Will the NBA income drop so significantly that each team will have to reduce expected player salaries by eight million dollars? If you multiply eight million by thirty (for each team in the NBA), the league is looking to cut two hundred-forty million dollars just toward player expenses. In times when basketball has recently expanded into the global frontier, could the NBA expect to lose $240 million?

Yes, the United States is facing an economic recession, but there are still affluent and dedicated members of our national community that love basketball. Plus, if the NBA burgeons its commitment to European and Asian markets (both of which have become fond of basketball and western culture), then it is possible that the league can harness loses and nullify debt ramifications altogether.

Could this just be a vice by the NBA to encourage teams to spend available cap room this season instead of waiting around for next year. With Detriot sitting around with about $20 million and Portland with $8 million, could have the league been trying to hoax these teams into committing to players this year, so millions of dollars of cap room weren't sitting around. The NBA could have well and away been looking out for the security of its players and its premier franchises.

It is no secret that the NBA's main revenue sources are the Los Angeles Lakers and the New York Knicks. With the Lakers in fine grounds (they did just when the NBA Championship), the NBA may have been trying to winnow teams like Detriot, Portland, and Oklahoma City as possible destinations for next year's marquee free agents. The league knows that the Knicks are trying to dump salaries in order to bring in two superstar players to the NBA's biggest stage and I am sure the NBA wouldn't mind having the best show under the biggest lights even if that means deceiving a small market franchise. The NBA would not seriously consider strangling their best asset.

The second question to ask is: How will this affect next year's free agency if this is serious?

Well there are two paths this scenario can follow. Ideally, NBA teams would reduce offers and proportionalize the player's productivity to a salary under the given circumstances. This would allow free agency to play out the same way as it would have no matter what the cap is set out since players are earning what they are worth under the given market circumstances. For example, Carlos Boozer is asking for $14 million next year when he is worth only $11-12 million. In a tight salary year, Boozer would then be worth approximately $10 million for the season.

However Boozer and his agents will not settle for this value which will likely force the second scenario.

The other possibility is that teams offers players contracts based on what they are worth in previous market years. With the world of agencies and player representative companies this is likely how free agency will play out. Under these Darwinist terms, the best free agents will receive maximum deals leaving little room for average and below average players. This will either force players to sign for the league minimum, sit out to preserve their value, or play over seas. In turn, this creates a large wage gap where you have elite maximum contracts players and then everybody else. If this cycles for two or three more free agencies, then you are looking at a strained environment with pretentious elites and indifferent moderates. At this point organizations would be highly focused on preserving their elite players which will displease the moderate players and create a volatile locker room.

That is a terrible manifestation.

The NBA surely recognizes this ultimatum. Fans, league executives, and owners alike must be wondering how to discourse this route or compensate if reached. This leads us to the third question: How can the situation be avoided or eased?

First off, fans can remain dedicated to their teams. The nation is in an economic recession, so all of the expendable cash available in previous decades is not available at the same magnitude. There are obviously fans out there in very difficult economic situation where themselves and their families face penury term. For those we send out our greatest praise and hopes. Then there are better off fans who can still afford a little bit of entertainment. This middle-class of fans must decide what is most important to them. Is it watching their favorite team compete, is it going on vacation, or is it driving a nicer car?

It is upon these fans by which the NBA stands by. The league knows it as affluent fans who will show up for their courtside seats twenty minutes late. The league also has struggling fans who will be glued to the television or sneaking down from the bleacher seats. The only uncertainty is what the middle-class fans will be doing. Will they be supporting the team or another hobby? Their decision is their own and unfortunately for the rest of the league's fans, they will have to live with this decision - whatever it may be.

Lastly, if the league does settle for a reduced cap, then you have to expect the league to encourage smaller, scaled back contracts that permit flexibility for teams.

Brace yourselves we are in for an interesting ride.

Time to consider a BIG Trade

Rumors are still stirring as three-way trades between Utah, Portland, and Chicago as well as Utah, Portland, and New York. So far these trade rumors have only addressed the needs of two teams while settling the third team to lose.

Every team's priorities must be considered.

It would be a mistake for Walsh to trade Lee without packaging Jeffries or Curry. Utah wants to cut salaries - not break even. And Portland would like a PG, and Lee or Millsap. It is important to recognize Andre Miller's free agent status and the inclusion of a sign-and-trade, as well as the possibility of Chicago's involvement. Here is my best stab at a trade:

New York - Andre Miller(POR), Darius Miles' salary (POR)

Portland - David Lee(NY), Kirk Hinrich(CHI)

Utah - Tyrus Thomas(CHI)

Chicago - Carlos Boozer(UTA), Jerryd Bayless(POR), Jared Jeffries(NY)

Everyone's goals are met in this trade. NY acquires a PG and cuts Jared Jeffries loose. Portland acquires a young power forward and an elite point guard. Utah cuts Carlos Boozer's salary, while acquiring a young stud that may replace Kirlenko if they are unable to resign him next year. Chicago does trade away two solid pieces, but in return they receive Boozer who has the Bird exception for next year, a promising point guard in Jerryd Bayless at a discount price, and defensive help in Jared Jeffries.

Each team has to give up something they value; however, every single team is put into a better standing for the future. NY cuts Jeffries contract, Portland secures two young talents, Utah is no longer in a financial stranglehold, and Chicago has first shoot at locking up a prized power forward (and a discounted point guard of the future in addition to Rose).

The only complication is Miles' salary situation. I would have suggested sending Travis Outlaw and Tim Thomas/Jerome James to NY, but the Knicks cannot reacquire either James or Thomas and Thomas was just recently waived. The next scernario would be to send Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw to New York, but then the Blazers would be stuck with only one point guard. If Miles' salary is tradeable then this one can do the trick. If not, then we are back to step one.

EDIT: An alternative to Darius Miles' salary could be the inclusion of Travis Outlaw and another sign-and-trade by Portland with the Trailblazers utilizing their Mid-Level-Exception, so the Blazers do not have to become thin at point guard.

David Lee, Nate Robinson, and Houston Rockets Possibility

Again, here are my four big points for the Knicks off-season in order of importance:
1) Trade Curry
2) Maximize Lee
3) Trade Jeffries
4) Acquire PG

These should always be kept in mind while considering any trades. Now onto the rumors circulating around David Lee and Nate Robinson.

The publicly known teams after Lee are Portland and Oklahoma City. The teams after Robinson are Lakers, Magic, Bulls, Kings and Blazers. Lee's price around the league has started to revacillate. At first he seemed to be a $10 million guarantee, but now that Portland is the only team seriously pursuing him, his price may drop. In the end I see his first year being worth around $8.5 million (within $500,000). Nate's value is unknown in the rumor mill. I see him signing at around $5.5 million (within $500,000).

Portland is an excellent trading partner for the Knicks. They have three expiring contracts including Darius Miles' $9 million. They are also pursuing Andre Miller, so I wouldn't be surprised if they are looking to shed Jerryd Bayless. Finally, they are interested in both Knick restricted free agents. The only obstacle would be to send Curry to Portland. Management has stepped up under McMillian and Pritchard and I doubt they would take Curry's egregious contract, especially when they will be looking to resign Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge. Then again Curry's contract will only have one year left and may make him a valuable asset in a sign and trade (similar to how they were hoping to use Raef LaFrentz this year).

I don't see what LA can offer NY for Nate. It would have to be a direct signing, but the Lakers are in no position to offer money with the stranglehold they are in. The Magic have some flexibility in signing Nate, but again they are not in a position to sign and trade which would make it a strict signing. Chicago has some pieces in Brad Miller, Jerome James, and Tim Thomas. But Miller has become a major component of the Bulls, the Knicks despise James, and I am not sure if the Knicks are allowed to reacquire Tim Thomas yet.

That leaves the Kings who have a favorable situation. The team has Kenny Thomas and Shareef Abdul-Rahim with hefty expiring contracts; these will be great options to shop out Eddy Curry. The Kings just drafted Tyreke Evans and acquired Sergio Rodriguez, so they have a guard of interest. Again, if a deal would have gone down between NY and Sacramento it would have happened before or during the draft. The Kings knew the Knicks wanted Rubio. The Kings weren't going to select Rubio. And the Kings had interest in Nate Robinson. If the deal were to happen, it would have occurred a long time ago.

Finally, there haven't been any rumors in a while, but a New York-Houston trade would workout perfectly. Based on the values of David Lee and Nate Robinson above, this will be a reasonable trade between the two teams. (Bolded players are key components while italized players are other possibile parts).

New York

David Lee ($8.5 M)
Nate Robinson($5.5 M)
Eddy Curry ($10.5 M)
Wilson Chandler
Jared Jeffries

for

Houston

Tracy McGrady ($23.2 M)
Brian Cook
Brent Barry
Jermaine Taylor
Sergio Llull
Chase Budinger

The Rockets have lost two of their three main components to last year and are on the verge of losing their final piece. Houston has already addressed the Artest loss with Trevor Ariza. Gortat seems to be headed to Dallas, so Houston will have to resort to a Plan B free agent or the team can trade for David Lee who put up great numbers all year long (not solely in the playoffs like Gortat). Lee would be an up and coming replacement for Yao, while Robinson would serve as a not playoff cursed downgrade for McGrady. The Knicks should also not shy away from including Wilson Chandler. While the Rockets could trade some of their second round picks or expiring contracts.
The Trade would leave Houston rejuvenated with a new nucleus and in perfect position to swoop in and sign a low price free agent such as Allen Iverson (he would be at a great discount compared to what they would be paying McGrady) while the Knicks would be a buyout away from an absoulutely perfect position for next summer's free agency.

As of now this is what Houston looks like:
PG: Aaron Brooks / Kyle Lowry / Sergio Llull
SG: Tracy McGrady / Brent Barry / Jermaine Taylor
SF: Trevor Ariza /Shane Battier/ James White / Chase Budinger
PF: Carl Landry / Brian Cook / Chuck Hayes
C: Luis Scola / Joey Dorsey

After the trade Houston could look like this:
PG: Aaron Brooks / Kyle Lowry
SG: Nate Robinson / Shane Battier / (Allen Iverson or Anthony Parker)
SF: Trevor Ariza / Wilson Chandler / James White
PF: David Lee / Carl Landry / Chuck Hayes
C: Luis Scola / Eddy Curry / Joey Dorsey

Houston would have depth that could compete with almost any team in the West; plus the team could convert to a fast paced offense like in New York or Golden State and become a legitiamte playoff contender. Everybody except for Eddy Curry can run the floor making the style ideal for this possible roster. Phoenix proved that a team can remain atop of the West with a fast paced offense and great depth. Houston would be in fine position to walk in similar footsteps.